An economically turbulent year has continued to put pressure on the gaming industry, with major platform holders cementing a minimum retail price of $70 for AAA titles.
Meanwhile, escalating development costs, rising hardware prices, and economic uncertainty are fuelling worries of further price inflation in 2026.
To get a better understanding of the year ahead, we asked leading analysts whether they expect prices to rise (or, optimistically, fall), and what the long-term implications are of pricing precedents set by major platform holders like Nintendo.
Kantan Games founder Dr Serkan Toto wouldn’t be surprised if prices continue to rise, describing it as “a new normal where hardware prices do not fall over time anymore but stay stable for a few years at best.”
As for why this will most likely be the case, Video Game Insights’ Vic Bassey cites increasing AAA development costs, tariff uncertainty, and rising hardware costs as the prevailing factors.
Looking specifically at the AAA space, Alinea Analytics’ Rhys Elliott suggests that the industry “firmly established a new psychological floor at $70 with premium releases” in recent years, a benchmark set by major platform holders Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.
Ampere Analysis’ Piers Harding-Rolls agrees that a solid precedent has been set, but he doesn’t think that prices will rise further.
“Do I expect base game sales to go up again in 2026? No, I don’t think so,” he says. “But there is already some room in the market for AAA titles to shift to $80 if required.”
What Harding-Rolls does highlight, however, is the inflation of in-app purchases (IAPs) and in-game monetisation, and the impact both will continue to have on the industry in the new year.
“As this is where most spending is generated across the entire games market, there could be further inflation in this part of the monetisation mix. Generally, I think it’s easier to alter the value of an IAP bundle and a price increase on a cheap bundle is easier to implement without undermining gamer sentiment.”
The Nintendo impact
Nintendo’s decision to list its flagship Switch 2 title Mario Kart World for $80 took hold of the headlines and minds of consumers this year. But how did this affect the industry overall in 2025?
Analysts agree that while the platform holder’s decision may have caused furore among consumers, it did not come as a surprise considering the turbulent market conditions.
“Nintendo used inflation, tariffs and the general economic backdrop to push for a change in their pricing policy, and they were successful with it,” says Toto. “The consumer backlash of the few percent of their consumer base on [social media] is surely noticed by Nintendo but does not change their overall stance.”
Bassey described Nintendo’s decision as a “wise strategic move” that capitalised on the “feverish level of anticipation for the Switch 2.” He notes that the price rise didn’t adversely affect the game’s performance, with sales of Mario Kart World outpacing those of its predecessor Mario Kart 8 in the first four months of release.
“What that indicates is Nintendo’s first-party offerings, and especially the Mario Kart series, have a deeply loyal player base, and with that level of engagement, Nintendo can afford to hike its prices. In fact, we can expect to see price hikes for the next iterations in both the Mario and Legend of Zelda series.”
More developers could follow in Nintendo’s footsteps
Elliott predicts that the “biggest, most expensive AAA franchises” will follow Nintendo’s lead next year through to 2028 to capitalise on the next generation of consoles.
“Sony, Nintendo, and Xbox have all utilised the post-generational refresh period to justify price increases,” he notes. “Once the $80 price point is established by a few major blockbusters, it will quickly become the new aspirational tier for elite, non-live-service games from third-party publishers looking to maximise returns on enormous development investments. But again, it’ll all be variable.”
One such blockbuster is Grand Theft Auto 6, which is due to release in November 2026 following numerous delays. Some experts have predicted the highly-anticipated title could retail for $100, but how likely is this to happen?
“Sony, Nintendo, and Xbox have all utilised the post-generational refresh period to justify price increases”
Rhys Elliott, Alinea Analytics
Toto and Harding-Rolls predict the standard version of the game will sit between the now typical $70 to $80 points, while the deluxe editions and digital bundles could easily push the price to over $100.
Bassey, meanwhile, feels that “if there was any game likely to cross the $100 threshold,” it would be GTA 6.
“However, that would require Take-Two Interactive and any other publishers weighing up the pros and cons of what impact that would have on their long-term funnel of buyers,” he says. “Based on the level of hype surrounding the game, it would be prudent for Take-Two to pursue a price increase – although reaching $100 might just be a threshold too far.”
Elliott adds that for Rockstar, its “long-term cash cow” is GTA Online rather than the base game.
“Limiting the total addressable audience at launch with an aggressively high base price would hinder the crucial GTA 5 to GTA 6 player migration and slow the growth of the GTA Online user base,” he says.
AA and indie studios will maintain a lower price point
Elliott highlights that while increases in AAA pricing “suggests an opening for AA and indie studios to raise their own prices,” it’s in these studios best interests to maintain “a lower price point as the superior competitive strategy.”
“The core value of an affordable price is differentiation, allowing AA-tier games like Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, Dying Light The Beast, Arc Raiders, and Split Fiction to attract consumers seeking high-quality experiences without the substantial financial commitment required by $70 or $80 blockbusters. This approach leverages the power of volume, which has proven exceptionally lucrative for the indie segment.”
Harding-Rolls agrees, and also highlights the range of premium pricing offered to consumers, regardless of studio tier.
“From indie games at less than $10 to mid-priced AA games at $40 to 50, there is a huge choice of very good premium games for gamers to choose from; discounting, which for second tier AAA titles often happens a few weeks after launch and which has a major impact on average sales prices; and the inclusion of games in subscription services, which gives gamers a lower price point to access premium games.”
Could game prices fall in 2026?
Toto does not see a future in which game prices go down.
“We live in a world in which Nintendo in the US increased the price of an eight-year-old console, the original Switch, from $300 to $340,” he notes. “A simple pair of Joy-Cons for Switch went from an already astronomical $80 to $90. I don’t foresee a scenario in which prices could decrease anytime soon at all.”
Elliott says that the only thing that might deliver a significant and sustained drop in AAA prices would be “a major shift in the underlying economics of development and consumer behaviour.”
“The most impactful factor would be a severe global recession or a prolonged cost-of-living crisis that drastically reduces consumer disposable income and leads to market contraction.”
Harding-Rolls thinks that the success of titles like Clair Obscur may prompt some publishers to experiment with pricing. “Competition in the premium game market is fierce. Aside from the already mentioned discounting, which is prevalent, the success of some breakout titles in the $40 to 50 price range may drive more publishers to consider lower price points for some games.”
“If customers resist escalating costs, publishers may be compelled to reconsider price hikes as a viable strategy”
Vic Bassey, Video Game Insights
Looking at the broader economic sphere, however, Bassey considers a reversal of current trends is unlikely. “We haven’t seen a decrease in the price of gasoline, groceries or movie tickets so it won’t happen for games.”
For game prices to start to decrease, Bassey says there would need to be a “more stable economic environment” in order to discourage studios from routinely increasing prices, as well the lowering of production costs. And wrestling down spiralling production costs is something that has preoccupied CEOs’ minds throughout 2025, whether it’s through speeding up development, reducing team sizes, or relying more heavily on AI.
“However, the most significant influence on price reduction within the industry is likely to come from consumers,” concludes Bassey. “If customers respond negatively and actively resist escalating costs, publishers may be compelled to reconsider price hikes as a viable strategy.”
