Without the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, console revenue would be flat compared to 2025.
That’s according to Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, who told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s blockbuster crime romp is the only thing that is ensuring that the console market will see any growth in 2026. Rosier also said that Nintendo Switch 2 is also a contributing factor to console’s performance at the moment.
“There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up,” Rosier said.
“If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year-on-year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026.”
According to Newzoo’s newly released Global Games Market Report, console revenue is set to rise 5.1% in 2026 to hit $46.9 billion, while Grand Theft Auto 6 is forecast to increase full-game spending by 17.5%, something that Newzoo has identified as the “strongest growth of any business model.”
Rosier went on to say that the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 is “going to be cannibalistic to some other games”, likely a reason that so many studios have opted to move their release dates to avoid the game’s launch.
Asked whether 2026 will see a huge ‘Grand Theft Auto bump’ that will then correct in 2027, Rosier said that the “strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title” is huge, meaning that “the story doesn’t end at the end” in 2026.
“We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year,” Rosier said. “We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take-Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it’s going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that’s a big driver obviously. But we have no information of any kind. We’re just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title.” Discussing the reaction to the cost of Grand Theft Auto 6, Rosier says that sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; he adds that “the price elasticity is very low” because “there is only one GTA 6”.
“Everyone’s been waiting so long,” Rosier says. “IT doesn’t mean that everyone can do that. But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20. The prices are being lifted a little bit.”
Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report showed that once again mobile is the biggest platform and is forecast to generate 57% of all revenue globally this year. That’s $121.1 billion, representing a 6.8% increase year-on-year, driven by higher player spending and direct-to-consumer storefronts.
Previously, Newzoo forecast that Grand Theft Auto 6 pre-orders generated $260 million in revenue in the first week after they were made available.