According to data from Alinea Analytics, Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 has sold under 200,000 pre-order copies on Steam 18 days ahead of launch, whereas Battlefield 6 had already sold almost a million during the same time frame.
Similarly, as Eurogamer reported yesterday, Black Ops 7 is ranked at number 173 for Steam wishlists. By contrast, Battlefield 6 peaked at number 3.
However, although the numbers look bad for Call of Duty at first glance, the bigger picture is harder to ascertain.
For a start, because Call of Duty is an annual franchise, regular players might not bother adding it to their wishlists. “Like FIFA, it’s difficult to measure the success of upcoming CoD releases based solely on wishlist data,” says Vic Bassey of Video Game Insights (VGI). “A lot of factors come into play. However, what we do know is that players already embedded within a gaming ecosystem tend to buy the serialized release rather than adding it to a wishlist.”
Bassey notes that Call of Duty games have their own separate launcher on PC, so we don’t have access to the complete data, and not all PC players will be buying the game via Steam. There’s also the fact that Black Ops 7 will be available day one on PC Game Pass, which saw a price rise earlier this month.
In addition, VGI’s data shows that the Call of Duty franchise as a whole has around twice as many followers as Battlefield 6 on Steam, at around 658,000.
Rhys Elliott at Alinea Analytics says that according to his firm’s data, Battlefield 6 has now passed 10 million copies sold across all platforms, and it seems to have won over the core PC audience. “But that momentum alone won’t be enough to overturn Call of Duty’s overall market dominance – this year, at least.”
He points out that whereas the Battlefield series has always “resonated most with PC players,” Call of Duty remains a “multi-platform powerhouse with a sales base that extends far beyond Steam and the PC market.”
Elliott suggests that Battlefield 6 is currently enjoying a huge amount of goodwill as the series bounces back from the disappointment of Battlefield 2042, whereas Call of Duty Black Ops 7 is facing “a perception problem” as a result of series repetition and a focus on “Fortnite-esque cosmetics.” But that won’t necessarily impact sales all that much.
“Call of Duty has an entrenched global audience across consoles and PC – including more casual gamers – that purchases the game each year out of habit and brand loyalty,” says Elliott. “Its casual player base dwarfs Battlefield’s, and its integration with Warzone ensures that millions of players are constantly exposed to marketing, in-game promotions, and social tie-ins that convert attention into purchases.
“Even if Black Ops 7 feels less exciting to us and the enthusiast media, the sheer reach of CoD’s ecosystem – through cross-promotion, platform partnerships, and content cycles – guarantees massive sales volume once the game launches.”
He thinks that although Battlefield 6 might be winning the hearts and minds of PC players, the market inertia of Call of Duty will ensure that Black Ops 7 will sell more copies overall. “Battlefield is having its comeback moment, but Call of Duty remains the default choice for the mass-market player.”
However, he thinks that Battlefield could become a serious threat to Call of Duty in the future, as it rolls out updates like a battle royale mode and the UGC-focused Battlefield Portal. The latter could potentially capture the attention of “the TikTok crowd and streamers,” and “could open the door for Battlefield as a platform,” he suggests.
“If EA delivers on its roadmap cadence, keeps momentum through a crowded shooter season, and successfully rolls out battle royale that feels like Battlefield (not Apex Legends with tanks),” says Elliott, “[we could see] EA nurture Battlefield into some real competition for Call of Duty in the coming years.”
