New data shows that competitive shooters and sports games are most at risk of losing players to Grand Theft Auto 6 during its launch next month.
Gaming consultancy Open World conducted a risk assessment to identify which audiences are most likely to pull away from games during GTA 6’s launch window and how developers can prepare.
Survey data indicates that 69% of PC and console gamers plan to play the highly anticipated title. In the US, Sensor Tower estimates 6.08 million digital pre-orders as of October 13, totaling $594 million in revenue.
Open World analysed historical overlap (the percentage of a game’s current players who have played a GTA title) and launch intent (the percentage planning to play GTA 6 at launch).
Titles such as Call of Duty, Battlefield, Apex Legends, Fortnite, EA Sports FC, and NBA 2K are most likely to lose players to GTA 6 at launch.
Counter-Strike 2 was identified as an outlier, as it is not available on console. While it has a higher proportion of players who have played a GTA game, it shows lower intent to play GTA 6 at launch.
Open World found that players of driving and movement-focused games are most likely to shift their attention to GTA 6 at launch, followed by those who prefer “high-stakes sessions” and open-world gameplay.
The assessment noted that even highly dedicated players of games like Call of Duty or Fortnite are not immune, and loyalty “will not protect a game from GTA 6.”
Open World’s primary recommendation is for teams to avoid major content updates or paid marketing during GTA 6’s launch window. “Keep enough activity in the market to support existing players […] and save the strongest re-engagement push for when attention starts to normalise.”
It also suggested to remain active during the launch window, regardless of player focus. “A lower GTA 6 pull gives a game the chance to hold [a] share of voice while more exposed competitors pull back. Unless player behaviour changes materially, business as usual is a reasonable starting point.”
“Track GTA 6 adoption, share-of-time loss, lapse and return, and let re-entry follow actual player behaviour instead of a fixed calendar.”