Analysts tell GamesIndustry.biz that Microsoft’s decision to cut the price of Game Pass and remove Call of Duty as a day-one offering was an expected response to the latter’s limited impact on driving subscription revenue, although opinions differ on the impact on Call of Duty revenues.
“It was clear from very early on in the Call of Duty on Game Pass experiment that it did not lead to a significant increase in Xbox console sales or even subscriptions,” says Circana’s Mat Piscatella. “So, this change is not surprising at all. A little overdue, perhaps. But not surprising.”
Piers Harding-Rolls of Ampere Analysis agrees that “the commercial reasoning for pursuing a subscription-first strategy for new releases the size of CoD has not been realised.”
“Its inclusion in Game Pass was hoped to turbo-charge the service,” he says, “but these short-term intense boosts of subscribers taking advantage of cheaper access to one of the most popular premium games available have not been able to be sustained for the long term.”
“The data has never suggested to me that Call of Duty’s shift into Game Pass had as big an impact on sales of the game”
Harding-Rolls says that “Microsoft was leaving a substantial amount of revenue on the table through a loss in premium sales,” echoing previous reporting that Microsoft had lost $300 million in Call of Duty revenues through the game’s inclusion in Game Pass, although Piscatella disagrees. “The data has never suggested to me that Call of Duty’s shift into Game Pass had as big an impact on sales of the game,” he says. “And I am certainly not convinced at all that the inclusion of Call of Duty on Game Pass on day 1 had any significant impact on sales of the game on, say, PlayStation platforms. If future versions of Call of Duty deliver the experience its players want, then sales will thrive regardless of its inclusion or exclusion from Game Pass.”
Both agree, however, that the drop in price for Game Pass Ultimate is a welcome change that should increase subscriber numbers. Harding-Rolls said the inclusion of CoD had lead to “pricing Game Pass Ultimate out of reach for many, and this change in approach is a balanced solution to these challenges.”
“I think the price reduction should help subscriber numbers grow,” says Piscatella. “Although, I am doubtful it will lead to higher Game Pass spending short-term given the discount. But we’ll see. Content is one of the biggest drivers of subs (and cancellations) so perhaps there will be some other surprises that will help drive subscription numbers. “
“Subscription spending has been one of the stronger areas of the video game market over the past two years, and is in a good position to continue growing as players look for value with their gaming dollars, particularly given what’s happening in everyday areas of consumer spending such as housing, food and now gas/fuel. The $29.99 monthly price was making the value part of that consumer calculation questionable.”
Harding-Rolls said that drop in monthly price “will see Game Pass ARPU rise once again in 2026, with a reduced chance of subscriber churn compared to the significant price hikes implemented in October 2025.” Ampere data indicated a significant increase in Game Pass subscription revenues after a previous price increase in 2024.
Harding-Rolls does not see the change as a significant shift in the company’s approach. “If anything, this is a continuation of ex-Xbox CEO Phil Spencer’s legacy that prompted the release of previously exclusive games on other competing platforms,” he says, categorising it as “a show of commercial pragmatism over long-held approaches to its business.”
“A new windowing approach for Call of Duty does not mean the death of day-one game releases in Game Pass,” he says. “This is still a legitimate new release strategy for select games and first-party releases will remain central to this approach. However, it does open the door to a more flexible approach to release windowing of first-party new games more generally. As the industry has seen with the shift away from platform exclusivity, Microsoft is not averse to pivoting its strategy to deliver a better outcome for the company.”
