Trump White House aides see almost no paths to Republicans keeping control of the House in the midterm elections, and are more focused on redoubling their efforts to save the Senate majority.
That has been the takeaway for officials in GOP groups who have been discussing the state of play with White House aides in recent weeks, according to three sources familiar with the situation.
It all comes as the White House moves into damage-control mode after contemplating for the first time earlier this month, as Inner Loop previously reported, that Republicans could possibly lose both chambers of Congress.
The general expectation is that the House has become a lost cause. Races that Republican congressional leadership once thought they could flip in order to offset Democratic gains are no longer considered attainable.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Speaker Mike Johnson, has now pulled ad buys in Democratic districts in Michigan and Ohio they were hoping to flip, as well as in the Republican seat being vacated in Nebraska by the retiring Don Bacon. The fund also started canceling remaining ad reservations in two House races where Republicans are seeking reelection in New Jersey and Iowa.
White House aides have shifted their focus to pushing an all-out defense of the Senate majority, which is also looking problematic but to a lesser degree than the House, the sources say. (Polling models and prediction markets agree.)
The aides see the Senate as still in play in large part because early returns for mail ballots have been relatively strong and comparable to 2024 presidential election levels in key Senate battleground states, sources say.
Trump officials at MAGA Inc. have also privately discussed how if Republicans can win some combination of senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, that would form a firewall that complicates Democrats’ path to snatching control of the Senate.
Still, Trump officials appear to have conceded they are unlikely to win in North Carolina. Senate Republicans’ campaign arm has paused ad spending in North Carolina since the start of October, mirroring pullbacks by other outside groups.
“President Trump is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both the House and Senate,” says White House spokesperson Liz Huston in a statement.
The state of play—retreating from a state like North Carolina, where Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair is on the ballot—would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.